Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $883,116$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018,408.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018,408.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,033$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,353.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,353.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,603$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,779$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,693.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,693.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,627$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,638.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,638.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,085$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,380,635$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,520,449.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,520,449.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $156,903$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,569.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(158,569.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $697,339$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $500,542$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{458,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.7)}}\) (asimptote \(458,390.7\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,892$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,879.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,879.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,074$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $159,614$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,219.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(180,219.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,542$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 199.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21,762.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,885$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,081,336$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,558,331.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,558,331.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,613$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,078.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 224.1)}}\) (asimptote \(69,078.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171,610$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,007,711$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,026,766.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,026,766.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,000$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,557.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,557.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,332$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,166$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,181.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,181.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(117.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41$ on 2020-10-24