Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $883,116$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018,408.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018,408.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,033$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,353.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,353.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,603$ on 2020-10-24

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,779$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,693.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,693.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,627$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,638.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,638.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,085$ on 2020-10-24

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,380,635$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,520,449.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,520,449.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $156,903$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,569.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(158,569.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $697,339$ on 2020-10-24

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $500,542$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{458,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.7)}}\) (asimptote \(458,390.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,892$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,879.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,879.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,074$ on 2020-10-24

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $159,614$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,219.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(180,219.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,542$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 199.4)}}\) (asimptote \(21,762.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,885$ on 2020-10-24

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,081,336$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,558,331.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,558,331.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,613$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,078.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 224.1)}}\) (asimptote \(69,078.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $171,610$ on 2020-10-24

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,007,711$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,026,766.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,026,766.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,000$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,557.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,557.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,332$ on 2020-10-24

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,166$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,181.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,181.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(117.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-10-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 96%
Bolivia recovered 60%
Venezuela recovered 60%
Colombia recovered 58%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,142$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,021.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.7)}}\) (asimptote \(98,021.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $770$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{882.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.7)}}\) (asimptote \(882.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,929$ on 2020-10-24